Race-day weather · Sunday, October 4, 2026

Twin Cities Marathon weather.

Race day came in at 50°F with a 45°F dew point at the 8am start, a combined score of 95, and 103 three hours in. For a 3:30 runner in the first wave, it cost 0% to 0.5%. If your time felt slow, here is what it was worth on a cool day.

95 Combined score
at the start Measured on race day: 50°F air + 45°F dew point at the 8am start (reading taken at 7:53am), Minneapolis-St. Paul International weather station. No adjustment needed at the start.
Start · 8am9550° air · 45° dew pointWNW wind 5 mph
+2 hours · 10am10358° air · 45° dew pointNNW wind 8 mph
+4 hours · 12pm10663° air · 43° dew pointWNW wind 9 mph

What your finish time was worth on a cool day

Find your finish time on the left. The weather’s cost is averaged across the hours you were on course, so pick the column for the wave you started in.

Your finish timeStarting 8amStarting 8:12am
2:456:18/miNo changescore 100No changescore 100
3:006:52/miNo changescore 1002:59 to 3:000% to 0.5% faster · score 101
3:157:26/mi3:14 to 3:150% to 0.5% faster · score 1013:14 to 3:150% to 0.5% faster · score 101
3:308:01/mi3:29 to 3:300% to 0.5% faster · score 1013:29 to 3:300% to 0.5% faster · score 101
3:458:35/mi3:44 to 3:450% to 0.5% faster · score 1013:44 to 3:450% to 0.5% faster · score 102
4:009:09/mi3:59 to 4:000% to 0.5% faster · score 1013:59 to 4:000% to 0.5% faster · score 102
4:3010:18/mi4:29 to 4:300% to 0.5% faster · score 1024:29 to 4:300% to 0.5% faster · score 103
5:0011:27/mi4:59 to 5:000% to 0.5% faster · score 1024:59 to 5:000% to 0.5% faster · score 103
What I’d take from it

Credit yourself the 0% to 0.5%. A slower watch on a morning like that is the same fitness as a faster one on a cool day, so set your next training paces from the cool-day equivalent, not the clock. Plug that time into the pace calculator and it gives you the paces.

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Twin Cities Marathon weather history: every race morning since 2000

Every row in the table below is a measurement from the Minneapolis-St. Paul International weather station, taken nearest 8am (today’s first-wave start) and again three hours later. Start times have moved over the years, so treat 8am as a clock time, not always the gun. Across 26 race mornings:

  • A typical 8am reading is 48°F with a 41°F dew point, a combined score of 89.
  • The warmest was 2007: 73°F with a 68°F dew point at 8am, a score of 141.
  • The most humid was 2007, with a 68°F dew point.
  • The coldest was 2012, at 28°F.
  • On 8 of 26 race mornings the 8am score was above 100, enough to call for a pace adjustment. Three hours later, 11 of 26 were.
  • The weather changed the race itself in 2023 (cancelled on race morning for heat).
  • The windiest start was 2024: NW wind at 21 mph, gusting to 29.
  • Rain fell in the first 5 hours on 3 of 26 race mornings (2 more saw only a trace). The most rain measured was 0.20 inches, in 2008.
Twin Cities Marathon weather by year · air / dew point (°F), combined score, wind and rain
YearDateAir / dew at 8amScoreAir / dew at 11amScoreWind at 8amRain
2026Oct 450° / 45°9560° / 43°103WNW 5 mphDry
2025Oct 569° / 55°12470° / 58°128S 14 mphgusts 24Trace
2024Oct 652° / 36°8856° / 37°93NW 21 mphgusts 29Dry
2023Oct 1Cancelled on race morning for heat69° / 59°12880° / 63°143SSE 6 mphDry
2022Oct 256° / 52°10865° / 48°113SE 3 mphDry
2021Oct 357° / 54°11163° / 56°119NW 8 mphDry
2020–Virtual only (COVID-19), no race morning
2019Oct 647° / 40°8756° / 41°97WSW 12 mphgusts 18Dry
2018Oct 745° / 41°8648° / 44°92ENE 10 mphDry
2017Oct 157° / 46°10360° / 47°107SE 13 mph0.07 in
2016Oct 938° / 35°7350° / 36°86CalmDry
2015Oct 443° / 38°8150° / 41°91NE 6 mphDry
2014Oct 536° / 29°6542° / 32°74WSW 6 mphDry
2013Oct 642° / 41°8352° / 47°99CalmLight rain
2012Oct 728° / 22°5041° / 22°63CalmDry
2011Oct 245° / 35°8063° / 38°101ESE 5 mphDry
2010Oct 341° / 35°7651° / 33°84CalmDry
2009Oct 445° / 42°8750° / 41°91W 7 mphTrace
2008Oct 549° / 41°9049° / 46°95ESE 17 mphgusts 260.20 in
2007Oct 773° / 68°14179° / 69°148S 12 mphDry
2006Oct 150° / 42°9266° / 46°112SE 5 mphDry
2005Oct 264° / 57°12270° / 59°129SE 12 mphDry
2004Oct 348° / 33°8157° / 40°97SW 10 mphDry
2003Oct 543° / 41°8449° / 43°92ESE 8 mphDry
2002Sep 2955° / 53°10856° / 56°112ENE 5 mphDry
2001Oct 733° / 19°5247° / 19°66CalmDry
2000Oct 830° / 21°5137° / 21°58NW 7 mphDry

Readings from the Minneapolis-St. Paul International ASOS weather station (NOAA/FAA, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet), the observation nearest each hour. Scores above 100 call for a pace adjustment. Rain is the total the station measured in the 5 hours after 8am. Download every hour as a CSV.

How the score works

Add the air temperature to the dew point, both in Fahrenheit. That combined score is closer to what your body feels than the temperature alone, because dew point decides whether your sweat can evaporate, and evaporating sweat is how you shed heat at race pace. The bands below are the same ones my heat pace calculator uses, and that page has the full chart and the physiology behind it.

Combined score → how much to slow down
  • 100 or lessNo pace adjustment
  • 101 – 1100% to 0.5% slower
  • 111 – 1200.5% to 1% slower
  • 121 – 1301% to 2% slower
  • 131 – 1402% to 3% slower
  • 141 – 1503% to 4.5% slower
  • 151 – 1604.5% to 6% slower
  • 161 – 1706% to 8% slower
  • 171 – 1808% to 10% slower
  • Above 180Hard running is not recommended

The bands are a coach's rule of thumb, not a lab measurement. Treat each range as a starting point and let effort make the final call.

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Other race-day weather pages

Chicago MarathonSunday, October 11, 2026113Race day at the startSlight penalty: 0.5% to 1% slower Columbus MarathonSunday, October 18, 202666Forecast at the startNo adjustment needed Detroit MarathonSunday, October 18, 202673Forecast at the startNo adjustment needed Marine Corps MarathonSunday, October 25, 202694Typical startNo adjustment needed NYC MarathonSunday, November 1, 202683Typical startNo adjustment needed Philadelphia MarathonSunday, November 22, 202673Typical startNo adjustment needed California International MarathonSunday, December 6, 202683Typical startNo adjustment needed Honolulu MarathonSunday, December 13, 2026136Typical startReal penalty: 2% to 3% slower Houston MarathonSunday, January 17, 202784Typical startNo adjustment needed LA MarathonSunday, March 7, 202799Typical startNo adjustment needed Boston MarathonMonday, April 19, 202784Typical startNo adjustment needed Grandma's MarathonSaturday, June 19, 2027112Typical startSlight penalty: 0.5% to 1% slower

All race-day weather pages

RunFitCoach is not affiliated with the Medtronic Twin Cities Marathon or its organizers. Observations from the Minneapolis-St. Paul International ASOS station (NOAA/FAA) via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Data updated Thursday, October 15, 2026.

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