20 Atlanta Marathon race mornings since 2007, measured hour by hour: temperature, dew point, wind, rain, and what the weather cost runners. The forecast for the 2027 race goes live here on Mar 1, six days out.
Built from the median race morning since 2007, averaged across the hours you’d be running. Where the weather costs time, each cell gives the adjusted finish time and the pace per mile to run instead. Six days out, the real forecast replaces it.
| Goal on a cool day | Adjusted finish |
|---|---|
| 2:456:18/mi | No changescore 98 |
| 3:006:52/mi | No changescore 98 |
| 3:157:26/mi | No changescore 98 |
| 3:308:01/mi | No changescore 98 |
| 3:458:35/mi | No changescore 98 |
| 4:009:09/mi | No changescore 99 |
| 4:3010:18/mi | No changescore 99 |
| 5:0011:27/mi | No changescore 99 |
Race the plan as written. This is the weather marathons are built for, and the only real risk is going out too fast because the first miles feel free. Hold goal pace through halfway and let the second half decide itself.
Race week, start to finish: how I’d run the three-week taper, what to take in during the race, how much to slow down in heat and humidity, and what the four weeks after should look like.
How I adjust pacing, fueling and the warm-up when race morning runs warm. One email when a new training note drops. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Every row in the table below is a measurement from the Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International weather station, taken nearest 7:15am (today’s first-wave start) and again three hours later. Start times have moved over the years, so treat 7:15am as a clock time, not always the gun. Across 20 race mornings:
| Year | Date | Air / dew at 7:15am | Score | Air / dew at 10:15am | Score | Wind at 7:15am | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Mar 1 | 49° / 43° | 92 | 64° / 46° | 110 | WNW 6 mph | Dry |
| 2025 | Mar 2 | 36° / 20° | 56 | 39° / 20° | 59 | N 10 mph | Dry |
| 2024 | Feb 25 | 35° / 25° | 60 | 47° / 26° | 73 | WNW 7 mph | Dry |
| 2023 | Feb 26 | 62° / 59° | 121 | 68° / 59° | 127 | WNW 5 mph | Dry |
| 2022 | Feb 27 | 50° / 46° | 96 | 49° / 47° | 96 | NE 9 mph | 0.37 in |
| 2021 | Feb 28Moved to Atlanta Motor Speedway (COVID-19) | 57° / 55° | 112 | 66° / 60° | 126 | SSE 3 mph | Dry |
| 2020 | Mar 1 | 36° / 25° | 61 | 50° / 23° | 73 | Calm | Dry |
| 2019 | Mar 17 | 43° / 23° | 66 | 47° / 23° | 70 | N 10 mphgusts 18 | Dry |
| 2018 | Mar 18 | 59° / 56° | 115 | 61° / 50° | 111 | WNW 6 mph | Dry |
| 2017 | Mar 19 | 43° / 32° | 75 | 46° / 33° | 79 | NW 7 mph | Dry |
| 2016 | Mar 20 | 44° / 34° | 78 | 48° / 34° | 82 | NW 13 mph | Dry |
| 2015 | Mar 22 | 56° / 50° | 106 | 55° / 50° | 105 | NNE 6 mph | 0.13 in |
| 2014 | Mar 23 | 56° / 48° | 104 | 52° / 43° | 95 | SW 6 mph | Light rain |
| 2013 | Mar 17 | 55° / 47° | 102 | 58° / 50° | 108 | SW 5 mph | Dry |
| 2012 | Mar 18 | 61° / 53° | 114 | 70° / 53° | 123 | W 3 mph | Dry |
| 2011 | Mar 20 | 60° / 55° | 115 | 60° / 51° | 111 | E 12 mph | Dry |
| 2010 | Mar 21 | 54° / 43° | 97 | 52° / 49° | 101 | SE 6 mph | 0.02 in |
| 2009 | Mar 29 | 44° / 36° | 80 | 46° / 37° | 84 | WSW 8 mph | Dry |
| 2008 | Mar 30 | 44° / 42° | 86 | 43° / 41° | 84 | E 21 mph | Dry |
| 2007 | Mar 25 | 61° / 49° | 110 | 72° / 52° | 124 | WNW 7 mph | Dry |
Readings from the Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International ASOS weather station (NOAA/FAA, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet), the observation nearest each hour. Scores above 100 call for a pace adjustment. Rain is the total the station measured in the 5 hours after 7:15am. Download every hour as a CSV.
Add the air temperature to the dew point, both in Fahrenheit. That combined score is closer to what your body feels than the temperature alone, because dew point decides whether your sweat can evaporate, and evaporating sweat is how you shed heat at race pace. The bands below are the same ones my heat pace calculator uses, and that page has the full chart and the physiology behind it.
The bands are a coach's rule of thumb, not a lab measurement. Treat each range as a starting point and let effort make the final call.
A forecast adjusts a pace. It doesn't know your training, how you handle heat, or how your last long run went. I write every plan by hand and set race-week pacing with each athlete. It starts with a free 20-minute call.
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RunFitCoach is not affiliated with the Publix Atlanta Marathon or its organizers. Observations from the Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International ASOS station (NOAA/FAA) via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Data updated Saturday, October 17, 2026.
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