Race-day weather · Sunday, October 25, 2026

Marine Corps Marathon weather.

24 Marine Corps Marathon race mornings since 2000, measured hour by hour: temperature, dew point, wind, rain, and what the weather cost runners. The forecast for the 2026 race goes live here on Oct 19, six days out. Until then, NOAA’s two-week outlook tilts warmer than normal.

94 Typical score
at the start The median race morning since 2000: 51°F air + 43°F dew point at 7:20am, across 24 race mornings at the Reagan National Airport weather station. No adjustment needed.
Start · 7:20am9451° air · 43° dew point
+2 hours · 9:20am9854° air · 44° dew point
+4 hours · 11:20am10259° air · 43° dew point
Two weeks out

NOAA’s 6–10 day outlook, issued Oct 15, covers Oct 21 to Oct 25. For the course it tilts warmer than normal (at least a 40% chance the stretch averages above normal, against 33% in a typical year), and it leans slightly drier than normal. That’s a five-day average, not race morning, so I’d treat it as a tilt in the odds rather than a forecast. When race morning has run warm here (9 of 24 since 2000), the 7:20am start scored 106 to 135, which costs up to 3% on a goal time: a 3:30 can drift to 3:36, or 8:15 per mile instead of 8:01. The hour-by-hour forecast goes up here on Oct 19, six days out.

Your goal pace on a typical race morning

Built from the median race morning since 2000, averaged across the hours you’d be running. Where the weather costs time, each cell gives the adjusted finish time and the pace per mile to run instead. Six days out, the real forecast replaces it.

Goal on a cool dayAdjusted finish
2:456:18/miNo changescore 96
3:006:52/miNo changescore 96
3:157:26/miNo changescore 97
3:308:01/miNo changescore 97
3:458:35/miNo changescore 97
4:009:09/miNo changescore 97
4:3010:18/miNo changescore 98
5:0011:27/miNo changescore 98
How I’d race a typical year

Race the plan as written. This is the weather marathons are built for, and the only real risk is going out too fast because the first miles feel free. Hold goal pace through halfway and let the second half decide itself.

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Marine Corps Marathon weather history: every race morning since 2000

Every row in the table below is a measurement from the Reagan National Airport weather station, taken nearest 7:20am (today’s first-wave start) and again three hours later. Start times have moved over the years, so treat 7:20am as a clock time, not always the gun. Across 24 race mornings:

  • A typical 7:20am reading is 51°F with a 43°F dew point, a combined score of 94.
  • The warmest was 2019: 68°F with a 67°F dew point at 7:20am, a score of 135.
  • The most humid was 2019, with a 67°F dew point.
  • The coldest was 2011, at 37°F.
  • On 9 of 24 race mornings the 7:20am score was above 100, enough to call for a pace adjustment. Three hours later, 10 of 24 were.
  • The weather changed the race itself in 2023 (cutoffs moved up for heat and humidity).
  • The windiest start was 2012: N wind at 14 mph.
  • Rain fell in the first 5 hours on 2 of 24 race mornings (1 more saw only a trace).
Marine Corps Marathon weather by year · air / dew point (°F), combined score, wind and rain
YearDateAir / dew at 7:20amScoreAir / dew at 10:20amScoreWind at 7:20amRain
2025Oct 2644° / 40°8451° / 43°94N 6 mphDry
2024Oct 2747° / 33°8052° / 33°85NNW 7 mphDry
2023Oct 29Cutoffs moved up for heat and humidity67° / 62°12968° / 62°130NE 9 mphDry
2022Oct 3041° / 38°7948° / 42°90N 7 mphDry
2021–Cancelled (COVID-19), virtual only, no race morning
2020–Virtual only (COVID-19), no race morning
2019Oct 2768° / 67°13571° / 69°140SSE 12 mphHeavy rain
2018Oct 2851° / 47°9854° / 45°99SSW 6 mphDry
2017Oct 2255° / 51°10661° / 55°116NNE 3 mphDry
2016Oct 3059° / 57°11662° / 58°120SSW 5 mphDry
2015Oct 2557° / 53°11058° / 56°114SSW 8 mph0.03 in
2014Oct 2661° / 34°9564° / 34°98WNW 9 mphDry
2013Oct 2744° / 35°7952° / 35°87SSW 8 mphDry
2012Oct 2860° / 46°10660° / 45°105N 14 mphTrace
2011Oct 3037° / 31°6842° / 32°74WNW 10 mphgusts 17Dry
2010Oct 3147° / 40°8754° / 43°96SSW 6 mphDry
2009Oct 2550° / 36°8654° / 37°91N 13 mphDry
2008Oct 2645° / 44°8952° / 46°98CalmDry
2007Oct 2857° / 42°9955° / 33°88NW 13 mphDry
2006Oct 2941° / 28°6952° / 32°84WSW 8 mphDry
2005Oct 3045° / 33°7856° / 33°89WSW 5 mphDry
2004Oct 3161° / 59°12066° / 60°126SSW 9 mphDry
2003Oct 2661° / 58°11966° / 59°125WSW 12 mphDry
2002Oct 2749° / 48°9759° / 50°109WSW 3 mphDry
2001Oct 2839° / 24°6348° / 24°72NNW 13 mphDry
2000Oct 2256° / 54°11062° / 47°109NE 7 mphDry

Readings from the Reagan National Airport ASOS weather station (NOAA/FAA, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet), the observation nearest each hour. Scores above 100 call for a pace adjustment. Rain is the total the station measured in the 5 hours after 7:20am. Download every hour as a CSV.

How the score works

Add the air temperature to the dew point, both in Fahrenheit. That combined score is closer to what your body feels than the temperature alone, because dew point decides whether your sweat can evaporate, and evaporating sweat is how you shed heat at race pace. The bands below are the same ones my heat pace calculator uses, and that page has the full chart and the physiology behind it.

Combined score → how much to slow down
  • 100 or lessNo pace adjustment
  • 101 – 1100% to 0.5% slower
  • 111 – 1200.5% to 1% slower
  • 121 – 1301% to 2% slower
  • 131 – 1402% to 3% slower
  • 141 – 1503% to 4.5% slower
  • 151 – 1604.5% to 6% slower
  • 161 – 1706% to 8% slower
  • 171 – 1808% to 10% slower
  • Above 180Hard running is not recommended

The bands are a coach's rule of thumb, not a lab measurement. Treat each range as a starting point and let effort make the final call.

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Other race-day weather pages

Twin Cities MarathonSunday, October 4, 202695Race day at the startNo adjustment needed Chicago MarathonSunday, October 11, 2026113Race day at the startSlight penalty: 0.5% to 1% slower Columbus MarathonSunday, October 18, 202666Forecast at the startNo adjustment needed Detroit MarathonSunday, October 18, 202673Forecast at the startNo adjustment needed NYC MarathonSunday, November 1, 202683Typical startNo adjustment needed Philadelphia MarathonSunday, November 22, 202673Typical startNo adjustment needed California International MarathonSunday, December 6, 202683Typical startNo adjustment needed Honolulu MarathonSunday, December 13, 2026136Typical startReal penalty: 2% to 3% slower Houston MarathonSunday, January 17, 202784Typical startNo adjustment needed LA MarathonSunday, March 7, 202799Typical startNo adjustment needed Boston MarathonMonday, April 19, 202784Typical startNo adjustment needed Grandma's MarathonSaturday, June 19, 2027112Typical startSlight penalty: 0.5% to 1% slower

All race-day weather pages

RunFitCoach is not affiliated with the Marine Corps Marathon or its organizers. Outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Observations from the Reagan National Airport ASOS station (NOAA/FAA) via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Data updated Thursday, October 15, 2026.

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