25 Honolulu Marathon race mornings since 2000, measured hour by hour: temperature, dew point, wind, rain, and what the weather cost runners. The forecast for the 2026 race goes live here on Dec 7, six days out.
Built from the median race morning since 2000, averaged across the hours you’d be running. Where the weather costs time, each cell gives the adjusted finish time and the pace per mile to run instead. Six days out, the real forecast replaces it.
| Goal on a cool day | Adjusted finish |
|---|---|
| 2:456:18/mi | 2:48 to 2:506:25–6:29/mi2% to 3% slower · score 137 |
| 3:006:52/mi | 3:04 to 3:057:00–7:04/mi2% to 3% slower · score 137 |
| 3:157:26/mi | 3:19 to 3:217:35–7:40/mi2% to 3% slower · score 137 |
| 3:308:01/mi | 3:34 to 3:368:10–8:15/mi2% to 3% slower · score 138 |
| 3:458:35/mi | 3:50 to 3:528:45–8:50/mi2% to 3% slower · score 138 |
| 4:009:09/mi | 4:05 to 4:079:20–9:26/mi2% to 3% slower · score 138 |
| 4:3010:18/mi | 4:35 to 4:3810:30–10:36/mi2% to 3% slower · score 139 |
| 5:0011:27/mi | 5:06 to 5:0911:40–11:47/mi2% to 3% slower · score 139 |
Give up 2% to 3% before the gun and race the first half by effort, not the watch. Take fluid with sodium at every station and cool your head and neck early. A calm first half is worth more today than any time you could bank.
How I adjust pacing, fueling and the warm-up when race morning runs warm. One email when a new training note drops. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Every row in the table below is a measurement from the Honolulu International weather station, taken nearest 5am (today’s first-wave start) and again three hours later. Start times have moved over the years, so treat 5am as a clock time, not always the gun. Across 25 race mornings:
| Year | Date | Air / dew at 5am | Score | Air / dew at 8am | Score | Wind at 5am | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Dec 14 | 74° / 71° | 145 | 77° / 73° | 150 | SSW 5 mph | 1.07 in |
| 2024 | Dec 8 | 72° / 67° | 139 | 73° / 67° | 140 | Calm | Heavy rain |
| 2023 | Dec 10 | 71° / 68° | 139 | 75° / 71° | 146 | N 5 mph | Dry |
| 2022 | Dec 11 | 75° / 65° | 140 | 76° / 65° | 141 | NNE 8 mphgusts 20 | Dry |
| 2021 | Dec 12 | 73° / 67° | 140 | 75° / 66° | 141 | ENE 12 mphgusts 21 | Dry |
| 2020 | – | Virtual only (COVID-19), no race morning | |||||
| 2019 | Dec 8 | 68° / 64° | 132 | 72° / 65° | 137 | N 5 mph | Dry |
| 2018 | Dec 9 | 73° / 59° | 132 | 75° / 59° | 134 | NNE 13 mph | Dry |
| 2017 | Dec 10 | 71° / 64° | 135 | 72° / 64° | 136 | NNW 5 mph | Dry |
| 2016 | Dec 11 | 71° / 66° | 137 | 70° / 66° | 136 | N 5 mph | Dry |
| 2015 | Dec 13 | 71° / 68° | 139 | 72° / 68° | 140 | Calm | Dry |
| 2014 | Dec 14 | 70° / 67° | 137 | 71° / 66° | 137 | NE 6 mph | Light rain |
| 2013 | Dec 8 | 70° / 63° | 133 | 73° / 66° | 139 | NNW 3 mph | Dry |
| 2012 | Dec 9 | 73° / 65° | 138 | 75° / 66° | 141 | ENE 9 mph | Dry |
| 2011 | Dec 11 | 73° / 66° | 139 | 74° / 66° | 140 | NE 9 mphgusts 18 | Light rain |
| 2010 | Dec 12 | 69° / 66° | 135 | 70° / 66° | 136 | NW 3 mph | Dry |
| 2009 | Dec 13 | 67° / 62° | 129 | 69° / 63° | 132 | Calm | Dry |
| 2008 | Dec 14 | 71° / 68° | 139 | 71° / 68° | 139 | ESE 7 mph | 0.01 in |
| 2007 | Dec 9 | 71° / 66° | 137 | 74° / 67° | 141 | Calm | Dry |
| 2006 | Dec 10 | 72° / 59° | 131 | 71° / 61° | 132 | E 8 mph | Dry |
| 2005 | Dec 11 | 72° / 64° | 136 | 74° / 65° | 139 | NE 7 mph | Dry |
| 2004 | Dec 12 | 67° / 61° | 128 | 69° / 61° | 130 | Calm | Dry |
| 2003 | Dec 14 | 74° / 65° | 139 | 76° / 60° | 136 | ENE 13 mph | Dry |
| 2002 | Dec 8 | 70° / 57° | 127 | 73° / 56° | 129 | NE 8 mph | Dry |
| 2001 | Dec 9 | 73° / 65° | 138 | 75° / 65° | 140 | ENE 17 mph | Trace |
| 2000 | Dec 10 | 68° / 64° | 132 | 71° / 65° | 136 | N 3 mph | Dry |
Readings from the Honolulu International ASOS weather station (NOAA/FAA, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet), the observation nearest each hour. Scores above 100 call for a pace adjustment. Rain is the total the station measured in the 5 hours after 5am. Download every hour as a CSV.
Add the air temperature to the dew point, both in Fahrenheit. That combined score is closer to what your body feels than the temperature alone, because dew point decides whether your sweat can evaporate, and evaporating sweat is how you shed heat at race pace. The bands below are the same ones my heat pace calculator uses, and that page has the full chart and the physiology behind it.
The bands are a coach's rule of thumb, not a lab measurement. Treat each range as a starting point and let effort make the final call.
A forecast adjusts a pace. It doesn't know your training, how you handle heat, or how your last long run went. I write every plan by hand and set race-week pacing with each athlete. It starts with a free 20-minute call.
Book a free intro callRunFitCoach is not affiliated with the JAL Honolulu Marathon or its organizers. Observations from the Honolulu International ASOS station (NOAA/FAA) via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Data updated Thursday, October 15, 2026.
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