26 Boston Marathon race mornings since 2000, measured hour by hour: temperature, dew point, and what the weather cost runners. The forecast for the 2027 race goes live here on Apr 13, six days out.
Built from the median race morning since 2000, averaged across the hours you’d be running. Six days out, the real forecast replaces it.
| Goal on a cool day | Starting 10am | Starting 11:21am |
|---|---|---|
| 2:45 | No changescore 85 | No changescore 87 |
| 3:00 | No changescore 85 | No changescore 87 |
| 3:15 | No changescore 86 | No changescore 87 |
| 3:30 | No changescore 86 | No changescore 87 |
| 3:45 | No changescore 86 | No changescore 87 |
| 4:00 | No changescore 86 | No changescore 87 |
| 4:30 | No changescore 86 | No changescore 87 |
| 5:00 | No changescore 86 | No changescore 88 |
Race the plan as written. This is the weather marathons are built for, and the only real risk is going out too fast because the first miles feel free. Hold goal pace through halfway and let the second half decide itself.
How I adjust pacing, fueling and the warm-up when race morning runs warm. One email when a new training note drops. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Every row in the table below is a measurement from the Boston Logan weather station, taken nearest 10am (today’s first-wave start) and again three hours later. Start times have moved over the years, so treat 10am as a clock time, not always the gun. Across 26 race mornings:
| Year | Date | Air / dew at 10am | Score | Air / dew at 1pm | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Apr 20 | 45° / 29° | 74 | 50° / 26° | 76 |
| 2025 | Apr 21 | 49° / 25° | 74 | 50° / 28° | 78 |
| 2024 | Apr 15 | 58° / 48° | 106 | 67° / 48° | 115 |
| 2023 | Apr 17 | 48° / 48° | 96 | 48° / 48° | 96 |
| 2022 | Apr 18 | 48° / 26° | 74 | 49° / 31° | 80 |
| 2021 | Oct 11 | 65° / 59° | 124 | 68° / 60° | 128 |
| 2020 | – | Virtual only (COVID-19), no race morning | |||
| 2019 | Apr 15 | 56° / 53° | 109 | 63° / 55° | 118 |
| 2018 | Apr 16 | 40° / 40° | 80 | 43° / 43° | 86 |
| 2017 | Apr 17 | 70° / 46° | 116 | 73° / 34° | 107 |
| 2016 | Apr 18 | 66° / 31° | 97 | 57° / 34° | 91 |
| 2015 | Apr 20 | 42° / 40° | 82 | 43° / 40° | 83 |
| 2014 | Apr 21 | 52° / 27° | 79 | 55° / 35° | 90 |
| 2013 | Apr 15 | 48° / 30° | 78 | 48° / 34° | 82 |
| 2012 | Apr 16 | 74° / 58° | 132 | 77° / 57° | 134 |
| 2011 | Apr 18 | 49° / 25° | 74 | 57° / 25° | 82 |
| 2010 | Apr 19 | 50° / 32° | 82 | 53° / 33° | 86 |
| 2009 | Apr 20 | 46° / 36° | 82 | 47° / 36° | 83 |
| 2008 | Apr 21 | 48° / 43° | 91 | 51° / 44° | 95 |
| 2007 | Apr 16 | 47° / 46° | 93 | 48° / 39° | 87 |
| 2006 | Apr 17 | 48° / 34° | 82 | 47° / 34° | 81 |
| 2005 | Apr 18 | 63° / 26° | 89 | 62° / 29° | 91 |
| 2004 | Apr 19 | 63° / 50° | 113 | 78° / 50° | 128 |
| 2003 | Apr 21 | 48° / 35° | 83 | 50° / 35° | 85 |
| 2002 | Apr 15 | 52° / 51° | 103 | 51° / 49° | 100 |
| 2001 | Apr 16 | 46° / 31° | 77 | 45° / 36° | 81 |
| 2000 | Apr 17 | 43° / 29° | 72 | 41° / 29° | 70 |
Readings from the Boston Logan ASOS weather station (NOAA/FAA, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet), the observation nearest each hour. Scores above 100 call for a pace adjustment. Download every hour as a CSV.
Add the air temperature to the dew point, both in Fahrenheit. That combined score is closer to what your body feels than the temperature alone, because dew point decides whether your sweat can evaporate, and evaporating sweat is how you shed heat at race pace. The bands below are the same ones my heat pace calculator uses, and that page has the full chart and the physiology behind it.
The bands are a coach's rule of thumb, not a lab measurement. Treat each range as a starting point and let effort make the final call.
A forecast adjusts a pace. It doesn't know your training, how you handle heat, or how your last long run went. I write every plan by hand and set race-week pacing with each athlete. It starts with a free 20-minute call.
Book a free intro callRunFitCoach is not affiliated with the Boston Marathon or its organizers. Observations from the Boston Logan ASOS station (NOAA/FAA) via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Data updated Tuesday, October 13, 2026.
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