I measured every race morning at 24 US marathons the same way, at each race’s own start time, and ranked them by the typical start, from Philadelphia’s score of 73 to Honolulu’s 136. The score is air temperature plus dew point in Fahrenheit, and above 100 I start adjusting pace. Here is how warm each one runs three hours in, and how often race morning has run warm.
Air temperature plus dew point, both in °F. A 60°F morning with a 45°F dew point scores 105. At 100 or less, the weather shouldn’t cost you anything at marathon pace. Above 100 it starts to: 101 to 110 is up to 0.5% slower, 121 to 130 is 1% to 2% slower, and above 180 I wouldn’t race hard at all. The full chart is below, and my heat pace calculator does the math for any morning.
Every race here is a full marathon, read at the marathon’s own start time.
| Race | Next race | Start | Typical start | 3 hours later | Mornings over 100 at the start | Warmest start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Philadelphia MarathonCourse guide | Nov 22 | 7am | 7341° / 32° | 7846° / 32° | 0 of 25 | 992013 |
| 2. Columbus MarathonCourse guide | Oct 18 | 7:30am | 7942° / 37° | 9554° / 41° | 3 of 25 | 1342017 |
| 3. Colfax MarathonCourse guide | May 16 | 6am | 8145° / 36° | 9256° / 36° | 0 of 20 | 982024 |
| 4. NYC MarathonCourse guide | Nov 1 | 9:10am | 8348° / 35° | 8854° / 34° | 5 of 24 | 1342022 |
| 5. California International MarathonCourse guide | Dec 6 | 7am | 8343° / 40° | 9350° / 43° | 4 of 25 | 1142012 |
| 6. Detroit MarathonCourse guide | Oct 18 | 7am | 8445° / 39° | 9250° / 42° | 6 of 25 | 1362017 |
| 7. Boston MarathonCourse guide | Apr 19 | 10am | 8549° / 36° | 8751° / 36° | 7 of 26 | 1322012 |
| 8. Houston MarathonCourse guide | Jan 17 | 6:55am | 8546° / 39° | 9252° / 40° | 7 of 26 | 1292017 |
| 9. Eugene MarathonCourse guide | Apr 25 | 7am | 8946° / 43° | 9853° / 45° | 2 of 18 | 1142014 |
| 10. Twin Cities MarathonCourse guide | Oct 17 | 8am | 8948° / 41° | 9956° / 43° | 8 of 26 | 1412007 |
| 11. Jersey City MarathonCourse guide | Apr 18 | 7am | 9149° / 42° | 9556° / 39° | 1 of 4 | 1122023 |
| 12. Marine Corps MarathonCourse guide | Oct 25 | 7:20am | 9451° / 43° | 10056° / 44° | 9 of 24 | 1352019 |
| 13. Big Sur MarathonCourse guide | Apr 25 | 6:45am | 9650° / 46° | 10456° / 48° | 4 of 25 | 1042016 |
| 14. Atlanta Marathon | Mar 7 | 7:15am | 9752° / 45° | 9952° / 47° | 9 of 20 | 1212023 |
| 15. Chicago MarathonCourse guide | Oct 10 | 7:35am | 9752° / 45° | 10360° / 43° | 10 of 26 | 1372007 |
| 16. LA MarathonCourse guide | Mar 7 | 7am | 9953° / 46° | 10760° / 47° | 12 of 27 | 1122009 |
| 17. Pittsburgh MarathonCourse guide | May 2 | 7am | 10054° / 46° | 11060° / 50° | 9 of 20 | 1282010 |
| 18. Flying Pig MarathonCourse guide | May 2 | 6:30am | 10354° / 49° | 10758° / 49° | 13 of 26 | 1292024 |
| 19. San Francisco MarathonCourse guide | Jul 25 | 5:15am | 10957° / 52° | 11259° / 53° | 25 of 26 | 1202014 |
| 20. OC MarathonCourse guide | May 2 | 5:30am | 11059° / 51° | 11362° / 51° | 14 of 16 | 1162014 |
| 21. Rock 'n' Roll Nashville MarathonCourse guide | Apr 24 | 7:20am | 11058° / 52° | 11866° / 52° | 18 of 26 | 1412017 |
| 22. Grandma's MarathonCourse guide | Jun 19 | 7:45am | 11259° / 53° | 12066° / 54° | 23 of 26 | 1322016 |
| 23. Rock 'n' Roll San Diego MarathonCourse guide | Jun 6 | 6:15am | 11962° / 57° | 11963° / 56° | 26 of 26 | 1312025 |
| 24. Honolulu MarathonCourse guide | Dec 13 | 5am | 13671° / 65° | 13973° / 66° | 25 of 25 | 1452025 |
Download the table: marathon-race-morning-weather.csv.
The coolest typical start is Philadelphia’s: 41°F with a 32°F dew point at 7am, a score of 73. Columbus (79) and Colfax (81) come next. Each race is read at its own start time, so an early gun counts in its favor.
Seven of the 24 start above 100 on a typical morning, the point where I start adjusting pace: Honolulu, Rock 'n' Roll San Diego, Grandma's, Rock 'n' Roll Nashville, OC, San Francisco and Flying Pig. For those, plan on a warm race and be pleasantly surprised, not the other way around.
The biggest change over the morning is Columbus’s: a typical score of 79 at the start and 95 three hours later. A runner finishing in four hours races in different weather than one finishing in three, so the later column is the one to read if you’re out there longer.
The warmest race morning in the table was the Honolulu Marathon in 2025: 74°F with a 71°F dew point at the start, a score of 145.
Cool and flat: Columbus, CIM, Detroit, Houston, Eugene, Twin Cities and Jersey City sit in the cooler half here and the flatter half of the course elevation comparison. If the goal is a fast time, that’s where I’d start looking.
Every race morning comes from a long-record NOAA/FAA weather station near the course (ASOS, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet): the reading nearest each race’s first-wave start and three hours later, on every race morning since 2000, or since the race began. The typical start is the median of those mornings. Each race is read at its own start time, because that is the weather its runners actually start in, so an early gun is part of why a race ranks cool. The score adds the air temperature to the dew point, both in Fahrenheit, the same as my heat pace calculator: 100 or less needs no pace adjustment, and the bands above it are on every race page. A station can sit a few miles from the course, so treat a single morning as close, not exact. Each race’s page has every morning, hour by hour.
Race-morning weather is the part of race day you can’t train away, but you can pick for it and plan around it. The course matters as much, and so does where the race falls in your season. I help athletes pick the race and then build the plan around the conditions it’s likely to bring. It starts with a free 20-minute call.
Book a free intro callEvery race morning, the forecast in race week and heat-adjusted pace: Atlanta Marathon, Big Sur Marathon, Boston Marathon, California International Marathon, Chicago Marathon, Colfax Marathon, Columbus Marathon, Detroit Marathon, Eugene Marathon, Flying Pig Marathon, Grandma's Marathon, Honolulu Marathon, Houston Marathon, Jersey City Marathon, LA Marathon, Marine Corps Marathon, NYC Marathon, OC Marathon, Philadelphia Marathon, Pittsburgh Marathon, Rock 'n' Roll Nashville Marathon, Rock 'n' Roll San Diego Marathon, San Francisco Marathon, Twin Cities Marathon. The same races by course: elevation compared, flattest to hilliest. All races.
RunFitCoach is not affiliated with any of these races or their organizers. Observations from NOAA/FAA ASOS stations via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
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