25 Philadelphia Marathon race mornings since 2000, measured hour by hour: temperature, dew point, and what the weather cost runners. The forecast for the 2026 race goes live here on Nov 16, six days out.
Built from the median race morning since 2000, averaged across the hours you’d be running. Six days out, the real forecast replaces it.
| Goal on a cool day | Adjusted finish |
|---|---|
| 2:45 | No changescore 76 |
| 3:00 | No changescore 76 |
| 3:15 | No changescore 77 |
| 3:30 | No changescore 77 |
| 3:45 | No changescore 77 |
| 4:00 | No changescore 77 |
| 4:30 | No changescore 78 |
| 5:00 | No changescore 78 |
Race the plan as written. This is the weather marathons are built for, and the only real risk is going out too fast because the first miles feel free. Hold goal pace through halfway and let the second half decide itself.
How I adjust pacing, fueling and the warm-up when race morning runs warm. One email when a new training note drops. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Every row in the table below is a measurement from the Philadelphia International weather station, taken nearest 7am (today’s first-wave start) and again three hours later. Start times have moved over the years, so treat 7am as a clock time, not always the gun. Across 25 race mornings:
| Year | Date | Air / dew at 7am | Score | Air / dew at 10am | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Nov 23 | 36° / 29° | 65 | 45° / 30° | 75 |
| 2024 | Nov 24 | 48° / 36° | 84 | 50° / 37° | 87 |
| 2023 | Nov 19 | 41° / 27° | 68 | 50° / 30° | 80 |
| 2022 | Nov 20 | 35° / 12° | 47 | 34° / 6° | 40 |
| 2021 | Nov 21 | 40° / 36° | 76 | 47° / 39° | 86 |
| 2020 | – | Cancelled (COVID-19) | |||
| 2019 | Nov 24 | 41° / 38° | 79 | 43° / 37° | 80 |
| 2018 | Nov 18 | 34° / 29° | 63 | 41° / 32° | 73 |
| 2017 | Nov 19 | 54° / 41° | 95 | 51° / 32° | 83 |
| 2016 | Nov 20 | 39° / 23° | 62 | 43° / 23° | 66 |
| 2015 | Nov 22 | 52° / 34° | 86 | 49° / 26° | 75 |
| 2014 | Nov 23 | 41° / 24° | 65 | 48° / 23° | 71 |
| 2013 | Nov 17 | 52° / 47° | 99 | 60° / 51° | 111 |
| 2012 | Nov 18 | 39° / 30° | 69 | 46° / 36° | 82 |
| 2011 | Nov 20 | 51° / 43° | 94 | 57° / 45° | 102 |
| 2010 | Nov 21 | 41° / 26° | 67 | 46° / 27° | 73 |
| 2009 | Nov 22 | 42° / 37° | 79 | 51° / 40° | 91 |
| 2008 | Nov 23 | 26° / 15° | 41 | 33° / 15° | 48 |
| 2007 | Nov 18 | 42° / 33° | 75 | 45° / 34° | 78 |
| 2006 | Nov 19 | 41° / 32° | 73 | 45° / 32° | 77 |
| 2005 | Nov 20 | 35° / 30° | 65 | 46° / 32° | 78 |
| 2004 | Nov 21 | 49° / 47° | 96 | 50° / 48° | 98 |
| 2003 | Nov 23 | 43° / 43° | 86 | 48° / 48° | 96 |
| 2002 | Nov 24 | 36° / 29° | 65 | 45° / 31° | 76 |
| 2001 | Nov 18 | 39° / 37° | 76 | 47° / 41° | 88 |
| 2000 | Nov 19 | 34° / 24° | 58 | 37° / 24° | 61 |
Readings from the Philadelphia International ASOS weather station (NOAA/FAA, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet), the observation nearest each hour. Scores above 100 call for a pace adjustment. Download every hour as a CSV.
Add the air temperature to the dew point, both in Fahrenheit. That combined score is closer to what your body feels than the temperature alone, because dew point decides whether your sweat can evaporate, and evaporating sweat is how you shed heat at race pace. The bands below are the same ones my heat pace calculator uses, and that page has the full chart and the physiology behind it.
The bands are a coach's rule of thumb, not a lab measurement. Treat each range as a starting point and let effort make the final call.
A forecast adjusts a pace. It doesn't know your training, how you handle heat, or how your last long run went. I write every plan by hand and set race-week pacing with each athlete. It starts with a free 20-minute call.
Book a free intro callRunFitCoach is not affiliated with the Philadelphia Marathon or its organizers. Observations from the Philadelphia International ASOS station (NOAA/FAA) via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Data updated Tuesday, October 13, 2026.
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