The forecast for Sunday, October 18, 2026: 34°F with a 32°F dew point at the 7:30am start, a combined score of 66. By 10:30am it reaches 80. Areas of frost at the start with a SE wind at 1 mph. For a 3:30 runner in the first wave, that needs no pace adjustment. Here is every goal time and pace adjusted, and how I’d race it.
Find your cool-weather goal on the left. Each cell gives the adjusted finish time and the pace per mile to run instead, averaged across the hours you’ll actually be running.
| Goal on a cool day | Adjusted finish |
|---|---|
| 2:456:18/mi | No changescore 71 |
| 3:006:52/mi | No changescore 71 |
| 3:157:26/mi | No changescore 73 |
| 3:308:01/mi | No changescore 74 |
| 3:458:35/mi | No changescore 74 |
| 4:009:09/mi | No changescore 74 |
| 4:3010:18/mi | No changescore 77 |
| 5:0011:27/mi | No changescore 77 |
Race the plan as written. This is the weather marathons are built for, and the only real risk is going out too fast because the first miles feel free. Hold goal pace through halfway and let the second half decide itself.
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Every row in the table below is a measurement from the John Glenn Columbus International weather station, taken nearest 7:30am (today’s first-wave start) and again three hours later. Start times have moved over the years, so treat 7:30am as a clock time, not always the gun. Across 25 race mornings:
| Year | Date | Air / dew at 7:30am | Score | Air / dew at 10:30am | Score | Wind at 7:30am | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oct 19Start delayed 15 minutes by rain and wind | 69° / 60° | 129 | 64° / 61° | 125 | S 14 mphgusts 31 | 0.47 in |
| 2024 | Oct 20 | 39° / 38° | 77 | 56° / 43° | 99 | Calm | Dry |
| 2023 | Oct 15 | 49° / 47° | 96 | 52° / 46° | 98 | NNW 15 mph | Dry |
| 2022 | Oct 16 | 44° / 36° | 80 | 54° / 36° | 90 | S 5 mph | Dry |
| 2021 | Oct 17 | 46° / 37° | 83 | 56° / 39° | 95 | W 9 mph | Dry |
| 2020 | – | Cancelled (COVID-19) | |||||
| 2019 | Oct 20 | 52° / 45° | 97 | 62° / 47° | 109 | Calm | Dry |
| 2018 | Oct 21 | 37° / 23° | 60 | 39° / 25° | 64 | NW 13 mph | Dry |
| 2017 | Oct 15 | 68° / 66° | 134 | 72° / 66° | 138 | SSW 13 mph | Dry |
| 2016 | Oct 16 | 61° / 59° | 120 | 70° / 60° | 130 | SSW 7 mph | Dry |
| 2015 | Oct 18 | 31° / 27° | 58 | 44° / 28° | 72 | S 3 mph | Dry |
| 2014 | Oct 19 | 41° / 37° | 78 | 47° / 35° | 82 | NNW 5 mph | Dry |
| 2013 | Oct 20 | 38° / 34° | 72 | 49° / 39° | 88 | S 5 mph | Dry |
| 2012 | Oct 21 | 37° / 36° | 73 | 48° / 43° | 91 | Calm | Dry |
| 2011 | Oct 16 | 51° / 41° | 92 | 56° / 41° | 97 | S 7 mph | Dry |
| 2010 | Oct 17 | 44° / 39° | 83 | 59° / 41° | 100 | SSE 3 mph | Dry |
| 2009 | Oct 18 | 33° / 29° | 62 | 45° / 29° | 74 | N 7 mph | Dry |
| 2008 | Oct 19 | 39° / 29° | 68 | 50° / 32° | 82 | Calm | Dry |
| 2007 | Oct 21 | 53° / 40° | 93 | 66° / 42° | 108 | SE 3 mph | Dry |
| 2006 | Oct 15 | 32° / 27° | 59 | 45° / 31° | 76 | SSE 3 mph | Dry |
| 2005 | Oct 16 | 45° / 38° | 83 | 54° / 41° | 95 | WNW 7 mph | Dry |
| 2004 | Oct 17 | 37° / 29° | 66 | 45° / 28° | 73 | SW 13 mph | Dry |
| 2003 | Oct 19 | 42° / 41° | 83 | 54° / 46° | 100 | Calm | Dry |
| 2002 | Oct 20 | 33° / 32° | 65 | 44° / 37° | 81 | Calm | Dry |
| 2001 | Oct 21 | 52° / 48° | 100 | 62° / 51° | 113 | S 7 mph | Dry |
| 2000 | Oct 29 | 34° / 33° | 67 | 47° / 37° | 84 | NNE 6 mph | Dry |
Readings from the John Glenn Columbus International ASOS weather station (NOAA/FAA, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet), the observation nearest each hour. Scores above 100 call for a pace adjustment. Rain is the total the station measured in the 5 hours after 7:30am. Download every hour as a CSV.
Add the air temperature to the dew point, both in Fahrenheit. That combined score is closer to what your body feels than the temperature alone, because dew point decides whether your sweat can evaporate, and evaporating sweat is how you shed heat at race pace. The bands below are the same ones my heat pace calculator uses, and that page has the full chart and the physiology behind it.
The bands are a coach's rule of thumb, not a lab measurement. Treat each range as a starting point and let effort make the final call.
A forecast adjusts a pace. It doesn't know your training, how you handle heat, or how your last long run went. I write every plan by hand and set race-week pacing with each athlete. It starts with a free 20-minute call.
Book a free intro callRunFitCoach is not affiliated with the Nationwide Children's Hospital Columbus Marathon or its organizers. Forecasts from the National Weather Service. Observations from the John Glenn Columbus International ASOS station (NOAA/FAA) via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Data updated Thursday, October 15, 2026.
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