Half marathon pace chart: pick a pace you can actually hold.

The chart, top to bottom

A half marathon is 13.1094 miles, or 21.0975 kilometers. Every pace below assumes even splits across that distance. Find your goal finish time on the left, then read across for the pace per mile, the 5K split, and the 10K split you would hit if you ran perfectly even.

Print it. Tape it to the fridge. Memorize your row. Then keep reading, because the chart is the easy part. The harder question is which row is honestly yours.

How to actually pick your pace

In 15 years of coaching, about 7 out of 10 athletes who set a half marathon goal pick it the same wrong way. They look at their best 10K from last year, do a little mental math, add a buffer that feels right, and call it done. That math works for some people. For most, it overshoots the actual half marathon by 20 to 40 seconds per mile, which is the difference between a strong finish and a 5K death march from mile 9 to the line.

Three honest ways to pick your row on the chart:

1. A recent 10K, raced hard. Multiply your 10K time by 2.22 to estimate your half marathon time. A 45:00 10K predicts roughly a 1:39:54 half if your endurance is in line with your speed. If your long runs have been short, add 2 to 4 percent. The conversion holds up well for well-trained recreational runners; it falls apart for runners whose 10K is sharp but who have not run more than 8 miles in months.
2. A VDOT lookup. Run a recent 5K or 10K through a VDOT table and read across to the half marathon column. VDOT assumes you have the aerobic endurance to back up the speed. If you do not, the table overpredicts. The honest answer is in our deep dive on VDOT, including when to trust it and when to discount it.
3. A 6-mile race-rehearsal effort. Three to four weeks before the race, run 6 miles at the pace you think you can hold. If miles 5 and 6 felt the same as miles 1 and 2, your goal is honest. If miles 5 and 6 cost noticeably more, your goal is 10 to 15 seconds per mile too fast.

The third one is the most useful and the most ignored. The body tells the truth in mile 5 of a half marathon rehearsal. The watch can only tell you what you wrote on it.

How a half marathon actually feels at goal pace

If you have only run halves at training paces, race pace will surprise you. Here is the honest effort map most well-paced halves follow:

• Miles 1 to 3. The pace feels too easy. This is correct. If it feels right at mile 1, you are too fast.
• Miles 4 to 7. The pace settles in. Breathing is rhythmic but you can still speak in short phrases. Your watch should be telling you exactly what your row on the chart said it would.
• Miles 8 to 10. The cost rises. Conversation drops to single words. Your form needs more attention to stay clean. Most runners who blow up blow up here, because they entered this band 10 to 15 seconds per mile too fast and the bill comes due.
• Miles 11 to 13.1. The closing kick. If you paced honestly, this is where you push down from your goal pace and bring it home faster than the chart said. If you paced dishonestly, this is where you watch the chart slip away.

I tell every athlete I coach for a half: the first 3 miles should feel like a betrayal. Like the race is too easy. That feeling is the single best signal that you are pacing correctly.

The negative split that beats 9 of 10 finishers

A negative split means running the second half of the race faster than the first. In a half marathon, that means your back 6.55 miles is at least a few seconds per mile quicker than your front 6.55. It sounds simple. It is also how a sizable chunk of the field gets passed in the last 5K every race weekend.

The practical version: take your goal half marathon pace and run the first 5K 5 to 10 seconds per mile slower than that. Hold goal pace from 5K to 15K. From 15K to the finish, push 5 to 15 seconds per mile faster than goal. Run that way and you will pass dozens of people who blew their wad in the opening flat miles.

Two reasons this works. First, the body burns less glycogen at the slightly slower opening pace, which means more fuel for the last 5K when it actually matters. Second, the field around you is doing the opposite. They went out hot and they are paying for it. You will pass runners by simply not slowing down.

Pace adjustments for heat, hills, and headwind

The chart assumes a flat course, dry pavement, and a dew point in the 50s or lower. Race day is rarely all three. Adjust your row accordingly.

Heat and humidity. Past a dew point of about 60°F, pace costs rise quickly. A rough working rule: above 60°F dew point, add 1 percent to your goal time. Above 65°F, add 2 to 3 percent. Above 70°F, you are not racing a half marathon, you are surviving one, and the smart play is to revise the goal at the start line, not at mile 10. The reasons are physiological and worth understanding in full, which is why we wrote a full piece on running in heat.

Hills. Net elevation gain of 200 feet or more across the course costs about 1 to 2 percent. A rolling course with no net gain still costs more than a flat one, because the surges on uphills and the brakes on downhills both spike energy use. Run the uphills by effort, not by pace, and let the downhills run a little faster than your average without overstriding.

Wind. Headwinds cost more than tailwinds save. A steady 10 mph headwind for half the race is worth 8 to 15 seconds per mile across those segments. Tuck into a small group when you can, and if the course is two laps, plan your effort knowing you will eat the wind twice.

Patterns to watch for at mile 10

If a half marathon falls apart, it almost always falls apart in the same place. Mile 10 to 11. The runner is past the point of no return, glycogen is thinning, the wheels start wobbling, and any pacing error from miles 1 to 3 finally cashes in. Four patterns I see across athletes I coach, and what to do about each:

1. The pace creep. Splits drift 5 to 8 seconds per mile faster than goal from mile 2 to mile 6, and the athlete does not correct. Even small overpace early compounds into a real cost late. Fix: glance at your watch at miles 2, 4, and 6. If you are running fast, the only correct response is to slow down. The race rewards discipline, not bravery in the opening miles.
2. The under-fueled finish. The athlete trained without practicing race-day gels and shows up race morning with a coffee and a banana. By mile 10, glycogen is empty. Fix: practice fueling on long runs. For most halves, one gel at mile 4 and a second at mile 8 covers it, plus water at every station.
3. The taper that wasn't. The last hard workout was 4 days out. Legs feel heavy at the start line and only worse from there. Fix: last quality workout no closer than 9 to 10 days out. Final week is short, sharp, and mostly easy. Same logic as in the marathon taper protocol, scaled down for the shorter race.
4. Easy-day damage. The athlete spent the build running every easy day at moderate pace, and they showed up to the start line with chronic, low-grade fatigue. Fix: keep easy days actually easy. The talk test, the breathing test, and the watch should agree. If they do not, the watch is wrong. We wrote a full piece on why easy pace is the most violated rule in distance running.

I had an athlete last cycle who hit every workout in the build, picked an honest goal time, and still came apart at mile 10 of her A race. The autopsy was simple. She went through the first 5K 22 seconds under goal pace because she felt great and the course was downhill. Two-thirds of a second per mile too fast for 3 miles. That was enough.

What to do tomorrow

If you have a half marathon on the calendar in the next 12 weeks, here is the short protocol. Five steps, in order:

1. Find your honest row on the chart above using one of the three methods in how to pick your pace. Do not pick the row you wish you belonged on.
2. Write that pace on a paper wristband, plus the 5K and 10K splits. Watches die. Paper does not.
3. Schedule a 6-mile race-rehearsal effort 3 to 4 weeks before the race. Run it at your goal pace. Be honest about how miles 5 and 6 felt compared to miles 1 and 2.
4. Set a 5-10-15 split plan: a slightly slower first 5K, goal pace through 15K, and 5 to 15 seconds per mile faster home. Practice that pattern on a long run before race day.
5. Adjust for the forecast. Check dew point 48 hours out and revise your goal time honestly if conditions warrant.

Do those five things and you will run the race the chart says you can run, instead of the one you wanted to run when you signed up.

Written by

Coach Johnny Crain

2:12 marathoner. 4× US Olympic Marathon Trials qualifier. 4× NCAA national champion and 4× NCAA runner-up. Spoke at the RRCA National Convention. Founder and head coach at RunFitCoach, where he coaches every athlete personally through a weekly written plan and direct messaging.